Türkiye’s Truck Sales 08.2024
Abstract
Truck sales and GDP are highly correlated. The IMF expects that the world’s GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2024. Consequently, we can anticipate around a 3% growth in the truck market as well. But who will capture the largest share of the market? The truck market is more competitive than ever. The shift to electric trucks, driven by new emissions regulations, along with the entry of new Chinese manufacturers, is putting significant pressure on OEMs(Original Equipment Manufacturers).
To remain competitive in the Turkish market, as well as globally, OEMs must excel in various areas, including telematics, which has introduced new business models to companies. Aftermarket pricing is another critical issue that needs careful management, especially with numerous OESs (Original Equipment Suppliers) vying for a share of the aftermarket.
Türkiye’s Truck Market Overview
Today, we will examine Türkiye’s truck market history and attempt to predict the market size for the coming years. As mentioned, the truck market is highly correlated with GDP, and Türkiye is no exception. As seen in the graphs, the behavior of the truck market closely mirrors that of GDP. In 2023, nearly 45,000 trucks were sold.
When we delve deeper, we can observe sales and market shares at the OEM level, as well as how the market share of each brand has changed over the past ten years.
Türkiye’s 2024 and 2025 Truck Sales Predictions
Türkiye has undertaken significant infrastructure projects in recent years, such as the new Istanbul Airport. These projects, coupled with a favorable economic environment, have benefited the truck market in recent years.
Türkiye’s growth in recent years has exceeded 5%, which is above the average growth rate for the country. However, despite the high inflation, Türkiye has maintained a loose monetary policy. This year, with the tightening of monetary policy and a much lower expected growth rate, truck sales in 2024 and 2025 could be lower than in 2023 if the country does not change its policy. The IMF expects a 3.6% growth for 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, which are well below the average growth rates. As a result, we can expect lower truck sales in the coming years.
Based on simulations, I expect total truck sales to be around 42,500 in 2024 and approximately 41,500 in 2025.
Conclusion
The Turkish truck market is highly influenced by the overall economic environment, particularly GDP growth. While the market has benefited from recent infrastructure projects and favorable economic conditions, the outlook for 2024 and 2025 is more uncertain. Tightened monetary policies and lower expected growth rates may lead to a decline in truck sales. OEMs must navigate these challenges by adapting to new market dynamics, including the shift towards electric trucks and the pressure from new market entrants.
Given the projected slowdown, OEMs in Türkiye should focus on innovation, particularly in areas like telematics and aftermarket pricing, to maintain competitiveness. Strategic planning and adaptation to the evolving regulatory landscape will be crucial for sustaining market share in the coming years.